If Iran and Israel do stop firing, Trump's high-risk strikes may pay off

Israeli forces have killed 23 Palestinians after opening fire on crowds gathered near an aid distribution site, according to witnesses and medics.
Tanks and drones reportedly fired at thousands of people near a distribution center in central Gaza run by the US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the same sources said.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said troops initially fired warning shots after people gathered nearby.
An Israeli aircraft then struck "several suspects" who, according to the IDF, continued walking towards troops.
The GHF denied that a shooting occurred near its sites.
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, more than 400 Palestinians have been killed in similar incidents since late May. That is when GHF took over most aid distribution in Gaza, part of an Israeli effort to bypass the UN as the primary supplier of aid.
This change followed a three-month complete Israeli blockade, during which no food entered the territory. A UN-backed assessment said this put the entire population at critical risk of famine.
In almost all such incidents, witnesses reported Israeli troops opening fire, though some reports also mentioned local armed gunmen shooting at civilians.
A spokesperson for al-Awda hospital in Nuseirat confirmed they had received:
23 bodies
More than 100 wounded
Images from the hospital showed bodies laid on the floor.
The IDF said the incident is under review.
The UN children's agency, Unicef, stated that the GHF-run aid system was:
"Making a desperate humanitarian situation worse."
Unicef spokesperson James Elder explained that unclear information about site openings—some of which are located in combat zones—is leading to mass casualty events.
He noted that:
Information was often shared when Gaza's internet was down
People had no access to know if the sites were truly open or closed
Many women and children were among the wounded
Among them was a young boy wounded by a tank shell, who later died.
On Thursday, at least 12 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces while waiting for aid, according to rescuers and medics.
The GHF denied that there were any incidents near its site.
The Israeli military told Reuters that "suspects" approached forces near Netzarim, and warning shots were fired.
On Tuesday, witnesses reported more than 50 people killed when Israeli forces opened fire and shelled an area near a junction east of Khan Younis, where thousands had gathered hoping for flour from a World Food Programme (WFP) site with a community kitchen nearby.
The Israeli military said a "gathering" was identified near IDF troops, and the incident was under review.
Unicef also warned of a man-made drought due to collapsed water systems in Gaza.
According to James Elder:
Only 40% of drinking water facilities are functioning
Gaza is "way below emergency standards"
"Children will begin to die of thirst," he warned
In a separate Israeli attack on Friday, a medic from the Palestinian Red Crescent told the BBC that:
11 Palestinians were killed
Others were injured in an airstrike targeting a home in the al-Ma'sar area, west of Deir al-Balah
Eyewitnesses said the strike targeted a two-storey house belonging to the Ayash family.
According to Hamas-run civil defence officials, Israel has carried out a wave of deadly airstrikes in recent days following a brief lull during the Israel-Iran escalation.
On Thursday, at least 77 Palestinians were killed
Strikes heavily targeted the Shati area in western Gaza City
Local sources speculate that these renewed strikes may be aimed at Hamas security elements, who have re-emerged in parts of Gaza to reassert control amid lawlessness.
These movements reportedly coincided with a temporary easing of Israeli aerial surveillance, as Israel focused militarily on Iran.
Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza in response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which resulted in:
About 1,200 Israelis killed
251 hostages taken
Since then, at least 55,706 people have been killed in Gaza, including:
More than 15,000 children
These figures come from the Hamas-run health ministry.
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